The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One
Discover the latest local and global investment and industry insights from the only global asset manager rooted in South Africa. At Ninety One, our global reach becomes your investment edge. Tune in, subscribe, and unlock expert perspectives with every new episode.
Episodes
#103 The revenge of the old economy
The AI trade's next chapter is likely to run through copper, natural gas and gold, not chips. Paul Gooden sees natural resource equities in the early innings of a new cycle, underpinned by unusually tight supply discipline and free cash flow yields roughly double the global equity market. It's a contrarian case for an out-of-favour asset class riding on the world's most crowded theme. Hosted on Ac
#102 El Niño is brewing a third inflation shock, which markets have yet to price in
El Niño is converging with the Middle East energy shock and fertilizer supply disruptions to create a compounding inflation risk that markets have barely begun to account for. Nicolas Jaquier draws on IMF research showing El Niño has historically driven a fifth of global commodity price swings, and explains why Brazil and Argentina are better placed to absorb the shock than Southeast Asia and Colo
#101 South Africa's budget windfall is real. So is the discipline behind it
A R30 billion tax surprise in June, driven by mining royalties, has put South Africa's fiscal turnaround back in the spotlight. Adam Furlan argues the real story isn't the windfall, it's what Treasury does with it: two straight years of primary surpluses and a coming fiscal rule point to an improving credit story that bond markets haven't fully priced in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for
#100 Nvidia is cheaper than the S&P 500. Someone is wrong.
The AI debate has moved past valuation and onto something harder to price: whether record capex converts into durable cash flow. From SpaceX's post-IPO wobble to China's cheaper models and the sector's circular financing, Anton du Plooy makes the case for why stock selection, not conviction on AI as a trade, will separate winners from losers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more informa
#99 AI's listing boom could end two decades of US equity tailwinds
For 20 years, buybacks and shrinking share counts boosted US equity returns. Sahil Mahtani argues that AI-driven IPOs and secondary issuance are set to reverse that trend, potentially dragging returns down. He draws a parallel to EMs in the 2010s, where a similar issuance wave eroded returns, but says that headwind for EMs is fading just as it builds in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/priva
#98 A coordinated yen rescue can't fix Japan's real rate problem
Jason Borbora-Sheen unpacks the first coordinated US-Japan currency intervention since 1998 and why a stronger yen won't hold unless Japan's real rates move. He argues the bigger signal is a global rate cycle that may be settling higher than markets expect, and explains how that's shaping a cautious stance in fixed income. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#97 The Fed's new chair just showed markets he'd rather they guess
The US Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but three dissents and a chair who won't give forward guidance left bond markets more unsettled than the decision itself. John Stopford explains why the confusion matters more than the vote, and what it means for positioning across bonds and equities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#96 After SARB surprises, all eyes turn to hawkish Fed
The SARB's split decision to leave the repo rate at 7% caught almost every economist off guard, but Ruen Naidu argues the central bank's own scenario analysis tells a more nuanced story. He unpacks why a lower-for-now stance doesn't mean a dovish central bank, and sets out what the Fed's own hawkish pivot under its new chair means for global bond markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for
#95 Two scoreboards: why SA credit holds up while the economy limps
SA corporate credit holds up even as GDP growth stalls and inflation risk builds. Stephen Naidoo explains why strong technicals, not improving fundamentals, are driving the market, and why that gap demands a more conservative, quality-first approach rather than complacency. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#94 Growth is no longer the enemy: inside Warsh's Fed
Kevin Warsh has chaired his first Fed meeting and testified to Congress, but is he simply doing Trump's bidding? Philip Saunders doesn't think so. He makes sense of Warsh's push to challenge Fed groupthink, why productivity and the AI boom could lift US growth well above conventional estimates, and what it means for inflation, interest rates and the dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy f
#93 South African value is priced like a distress sale, and the bond market disagrees
John Biccard argues that South African equities have become disconnected from the country's own improving bond market. He points to retail names trading at deep discounts to intrinsic value, a first move into global technology after a brutal software sell-off, and a patient multi-year bet on a spirits recovery. In short: buy what's hated, hold through the discomfort, and let the turning point do t
#92 Beyond the index giants: the case for active EM
After a blistering 18 months for emerging market equities at an index level, the concentration risk has now become a concern for many. Portfolio Manager Varun Laijawalla argues that beneath the headlines is a story of a wider opportunity set from which an active portfolio could benefit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#91 The dollar's reversal: from debasement fears to strength
After widespread expectations in 2025 of a structural dollar bear market, conditions appear to have shifted in 2026. The greenback's status as the world's reserve currency has strengthened over the past year, with the Dollar Index recording a modest, though not significant, gain. But is it simply a case of safe-haven buying at the outset of the conflict with Iran, combined with the prospect of hig
#90 Oil is falling, but South Africa's inflation fight is far from over
Oil prices have pulled back sharply from their peak, but Vivienne Taberer warns that the relief may come too late to spare South African consumers further pain. With the SARB watching closely for signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, more rate hikes may well be on the table before any cuts return. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#89 Peace plan, messy reality: commodities after Iran deal
The interim Iran peace plan has sent oil sharply lower, but the more interesting questions lie elsewhere. From gold's structural demand story to copper's confounding surplus, coal supply disruptions, and the fertilizer shock still working through the system, George Cheveley walks through why he believes the market is moving too fast to declare the crisis resolved. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/pr
#88 When the rule book no longer applies
AI is reshaping the US economy in ways that confound historical precedent. Philip Saunders makes sense of a market landscape where growth is real but uneven, inflation risks are manageable but not absent, and the old playbook may no longer be enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#87 The $1.75 trillion question: an IPO that could change everything
The SpaceX IPO is just the opening act. With Anthropic and OpenAI close behind, Anton du Plooy considers what a wave of trillion-dollar listings means for markets, and for the investors who have to decide what to do about them. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#86 Holding its nerve: how SA is weathering the oil shock
The Strait of Hormuz closure has rattled global energy markets, but South Africa is weathering the shock better than many expected. Ruen Naidu explains what the Moody's outlook upgrade signals, why the rand has held up, and how long South Africa can absorb persistently elevated oil prices. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#85 A 4% wake-up call: reading the SARB's next move
A supply shock has shifted the inflation picture, and the SARB's next move matters. Adam Furlan discusses the case for early action, the risk of second-round effects, and why Ninety One remains cautious on duration at the front end of the curve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#84 Beyond the index: why concentration risk may be active management's biggest opportunity
Markets are more concentrated than ever, and that changes the equation for investors. Siobhan Simpson uncovers the risks beneath the surface of major indices, from the Magnificent Seven to precious metals dominating the JSE, and explains why these conditions may be creating some of the most compelling opportunities for active management in years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more inf
#83 A very tight strait. Can oil get to $150?
With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded and global oil inventories drawing down fast, the oil market is approaching a critical inflection point. Paul Gooden cuts through the geopolitical noise to explain the supply-and-demand dynamics at play, what the numbers actually mean for oil prices, and why equity investors are more cautious than you might expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more
#82 Who really controls the Fed?
The battle between the White House and the world's most powerful central bank isn't just political theatre. It has real consequences for markets, inflation, and the credibility of independent monetary policy. Ruen Naidu explains what Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chair really means, and why the outcome matters far beyond Washington. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#81 The 5% problem: why bonds are back in the conversation
The US 30-year bond yield has broken through 5%. That might sound like a technicality, until you understand what it means for every other asset class on the planet. John Stopford unpacks why yields are on the move, what a flattening curve signals for growth, whether equity valuations can hold and why he is selling into strength. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#80 The art of sleeping when markets can't
Oil at double its 2026 lows. Bond yields creeping up. Petrol prices hammering the South African consumer. And the S&P still making new highs. Sumesh Chetty unpacks the contradictions shaping global markets right now, from the ripple effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure to the AI arms race and explains how he navigates uncertainty without losing sleep. (Well, almost.) Hosted on Acast. See ac
#79 When private credit flips the script
For years, developed markets were seen as the safer home for private credit, while emerging markets carried the higher-risk label. But that gap may be narrowing, and in some cases even reversing. Alper Kilic explores why strains are surfacing in US private credit, how weaker underwriting standards have contributed to the shift, and why emerging market private credit may offer a more resilient oppo
#78 Cash Talk: FLAC decoded | What SA’s new bank debt means for fixed income investors
South Africa’s fixed income market is entering a new phase with the introduction of FLAC instruments, a class of bank debt designed to strengthen the financial system and reduce the risk of taxpayer-funded bailouts. Lisa MacLeod and Stephen Naidoo unpack how these instruments work, why they are being introduced now, and what their arrival means for credit risk, pricing and portfolio construction i
#77 When the taps run dry: the real story behind South Africa’s water crisis
South Africa’s water challenges are becoming harder to ignore, as supply disruptions spread beyond rural areas into major urban centres. Yet the issue is less about scarcity than system failure. Tshiphiri Muedi explores how infrastructure inefficiencies are driving the crisis, and how emerging reforms could begin to unlock a more investable path forward. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for
#76 Bond market shock: panic or opportunity?
South African bonds have suffered their second-worst monthly drawdown in two decades, rattled by global conflict and rising inflation fears. But beneath the volatility, the fundamentals may tell a different story. James Turp unpacks what’s driving the sell-off, what past episodes reveal about market recoveries, and whether this presents investors with an attractive entry point into fixed income. H
#75 Markets shaken, not broken: Middle East tensions
The sudden escalation in the Middle East has jolted global markets, reversing expectations for lower inflation and rate cuts almost overnight. Malcolm Charles explains why this is more than a passing shock, how portfolios are being repositioned for a more uncertain world, and why caution rather than conviction is guiding investment decisions right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for mo
#74 When gold falls and oil calls the shots
In a market where gold no longer behaves like a safe haven and oil is rewriting the rules, investors are being forced to rethink old assumptions. George Chevely unpacks the dynamics across precious and industrial metals, and explains why energy, not gold, may now be the dominant force shaping returns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#73 Central banks on edge: when war rewrites the rate outlook
Just as central banks looked set on a path to easier policy, geopolitics has thrown a wrench into the plan. With conflict in the Middle East driving energy prices higher and clouding the inflation outlook, Jason Borbora-Sheen explains why rate cuts are being repriced, why different central banks will respond differently, and why, despite all the noise, markets have remained surprisingly resilient.
#72 When geopolitics shuts the taps
Oil markets have been jolted by a sharp escalation in the Middle East, pushing prices higher and disrupting flows through the vital Straits of Hormuz. Paul Gooden explains how the effective closure of this key route is squeezing global supply, driving volatility across energy markets. With outcomes ranging from a temporary spike to a more sustained period of higher prices, inventories, demand dest
#71 The Biccard playbook – patience, pain and payoff
After more than 25 years running the Ninety One Value Fund, John Biccard has learned that successful investing often means enduring periods of discomfort. Value investing requires buying what others dislike and waiting patiently for the cycle to turn. In this conversation, Biccard explains why geopolitical shocks and market noise rarely change the long-term investment case and why some of today’s
#70 War risk and oil spikes: Shock, sell-off… or opportunity?
The military build-up signalled it was coming, and now markets must grapple with the fallout. As conflict in the Middle East escalates, energy prices jumped, bond yields backed up and investors are reassessing risk. John Stopford explores why spiking oil matters for inflation and monetary policy, how markets typically absorb geopolitical shocks, and why a defensive starting position may create opp
#69 Goldilocks or false dawn?
After a year in which tariffs failed to ignite inflation and both bonds and equities surprised on the upside, investors are reassessing the outlook. With global growth resilient, inflation cooling and the dollar gradually weakening, David Knee explains why the “Goldilocks” backdrop still supports risk assets. The real challenge for 2026 may not be that conditions are perfect but recognising that –
#68 From election fears to fiscal discipline: What Budget 2026 means for your portfolio.
The National Treasury delivered expenditure discipline, no new bailouts, and a third consecutive primary surplus. Jaco van Tonder discusses the expanded tax-free savings, retirement deductibility, CGT exclusions, and offshore allowances that create planning opportunities advisers should not ignore. Malcolm Charles explores how reduced weekly bond issuance, a rally in long-dated yields, and improvi
#67 SONA: Infrastructure at the heart of SA’s growth plan
This year’s State of the Nation Address struck a notably confident tone: less promise, more progress. But is this truly a turning point? Alastair Herbertson explores why infrastructure is at the heart of South Africa’s growth ambitions, where private capital fits in, and why long-term investors may find this moment compelling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#66 SA Infrastructure: the dawn of reform
Phase 1 of Operation Vulindlela proved reforms can unlock private capital — around R500bn worth. Now Phase 2 shifts from policy design to delivery, with infrastructure firmly in the spotlight. Investment specialist Puleng Pitso unpacks where the next wave of opportunity may emerge and what “success” could look like for investors and communities alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for mor
#65 Dollar down: Halfway there or just getting started?
The dollar’s weakness is no longer a contrarian call; it’s becoming the base case. But what’s driving its persistence, and what would finally confirm a full-blown dollar bear cycle? Sahil Mahtani revisits the forces behind the “sell America” trade, the limits of Fed leadership changes, and the signals investors are watching for the next leg lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for mo
#64 Gold at $5 000: Bubble blow-off or just getting started?
After a breathtaking surge that carried gold well beyond $5 000 an ounce, followed by a brutal pullback, investors are questioning whether the rally has finally run its course. George Cheveley unpacks what drove the frenzy, why volatility is here to stay, and why gold equities may still offer compelling value despite the metal’s wild ride. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more informatio
#63 US rates on hold, questions in motion
One of Jerome Powell’s last acts as Fed chair was to do nothing. Or so it may seem. In the face of sluggish employment but lively growth, US rates were left unchanged. But will benign inflation continue and ultimately sway future decisions to ease? Philip Saunders analyses the situation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#62 Keep calm and carry on yielding
A stronger rand. Lower inflation. Rate cuts on the horizon. Malcolm Charles explains why South African bonds remain one of the most attractive income trades on the board, despite a blockbuster 2025. However, with the easy gains behind us, discipline and risk management will be essential. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#61 Could the momentum run out?
In 2025, quality investing was overshadowed by AI exuberance, precious metals and momentum-driven market leadership. As volatility re-enters the picture, those same forces are being tested. Sumesh Chetty reflects on why the balance between growth, valuation and resilience is becoming harder to ignore. From gold’s rise to a reassessment of South African assets, he explores what may matter more as 2
#60 Beyond supply and demand – how politics is driving oil prices
The oil price is once again being shaped by forces far beyond the fundamentals of supply and demand. Geopolitics has re-entered the equation in a meaningful way, from instability in Venezuela to rising tensions in Iran. Layered onto this is Donald Trump’s political calculus. His domestic priorities are tightly interwoven with his international stance on energy and geopolitics. Paul Gooden unpacks
#59 Is SA Inc poised for a breakout?
The JSE has delivered a standout year, led by resource names, but the real story, according to John Biccard, is only just starting. He explains why SA Inc is primed for a powerful re-rating, what the bond–equity divergence really tells us, and which sectors and stocks will dominate his portfolio as it enters 2026 with conviction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#58 The dichotomy of defence: Are today’s safest bets tomorrow’s cyclical risks?
The AI boom has turned the most cyclical parts of the market into perceived safe havens, while true defensives languish. Clyde Rossouw unpacks the tension between AI euphoria, a weakening consumer, and where genuine opportunities may actually lie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#57 MTBPS: Targets met, reforms on track
From the surprise early announcement of a lower inflation target to reduced bond issuance and cautious revenue projections, Sisamkele Kobus and Adam Furlan discuss why the market’s reaction was upbeat, and how improved fiscal and monetary alignment could support greater market stability ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#56 Active expertise, now on the JSE
Ninety One marks a milestone moment with the launch of its first two actively managed exchange-traded funds (AMETFs) on the JSE, bringing almost 35 years of active investment expertise into a listed, accessible format. Siobhan Simpson explains how Ninety One is evolving to meet changing investor needs and broaden access to its active investment skill while offering a glimpse of what’s to come. Hos
#55 Precious potential: why commodities still shine
From platinum deficits to gold’s resurgence and copper’s electrifying prospects, Muhammad Docrat unpacks the powerful forces reshaping commodities. He explains why tight supply, renewed central bank demand and the global energy transition are keeping precious and base metals in focus. even as oil tells a more complex story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#54 Private credit comes of age
Once a quiet corner of the alternatives market, private credit is now stepping into the mainstream. As investors seek yield, diversification, and real-world impact, the asset class offers a compelling blend of steady income, resilience through cycles, and tangible development benefits, particularly in emerging markets. Reabetswe Kungwane illustrates how private credit has moved from a niche altern
#53 Cash Talk: The resilient rand – what’s driving it and how long can it last?
The rand has been one of 2025’s standout performers: stronger against the dollar, steady against peers, and buoyed by solid fundamentals. A weaker greenback, firm commodity prices, and South Africa’s credible policy mix have all played a part. With global central banks shifting gears and local inflation easing, what comes next, and how will it shape the South African Reserve Bank’s path in th
#52 Climbing the wall of worry – on market momentum and hidden value
Stock markets at home and abroad have soared this year, but not all sectors are sharing in the gains. From the resource-heavy rally on the JSE to the dominance of tech in the US, Hannes van den Berg unpacks the narrow leadership behind record highs and where overlooked value may lie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#51 The Fed’s flip – why risk management could be a tailwind for equities
The tone of the US Federal Reserve has flipped from hovering on the hawkish side earlier this summer to delving firmly into dovish territory today. With jobs, inflation and politics all demanding attention, the policy permutations are many. Alex Holroyd-Jones unpacks the Fed’s shift into risk-management mode and what it means for markets and for equities in particular. Hosted on Acast. See acast.c
#50 The big 5-0: the best of the past year’s Investment Perspective
Fifty episodes, countless insights. To mark this milestone, The Investment Perspective revisits some of the most compelling moments from the past year. From the dollar bear market to renewed interest in South African equities, from oil’s uncertain path to the enduring case for gold, this episode distills the sharpest thinking from Ninety One’s investment professionals. A fitting celebration of 50,
#49 From safe haven to supply crunch: what’s driving gold and copper
Gold has surged past $3 700 an ounce and copper is climbing on tightening supply. From record central bank buying and ETF flows to mining disruptions and the spectre of a dollar bear market,George Cheveley unpacks the forces reshaping precious and base metals markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#48 Fed cuts as expected, but strains are showing
The Fed’s 0.25% cut landed as expected, but markets are left weighing a more complicated picture: cooling jobs, stubborn inflation, and a divided FOMC. Philip Saunders unpacks what the move really signals and where opportunity can be found amid the noise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#47 Cash Talk: Money market funds – now safer by design
Money market funds remain a cornerstone of the global financial system, prized for their liquidity and stability. Yet history has shown they are not immune to stress, with mismatches between investor redemptions and underlying assets occasionally exposing vulnerabilities. Regulators have responded with reforms designed to bolster resilience and transparency. Vivienne Taberer explains why these cha
#46 Why SA bonds are holding firm
Developed market bonds have had a turbulent year, buffeted by deficits, politics and policy uncertainty. Enter South African bonds. In contrast, they’ve been a bastion of relative calm, supported by orthodox fiscal and monetary policy. Ruen Naidu unpacks their performance and what the road ahead may hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#45 The ‘safe’ portfolio just got risky
South Africa’s high real yields have allowed conservative investors to lean heavily on income strategies for returns. However, that tailwind is fading. As inflation expectations settle and the SARB prepares to cut rates further, the return gap between bonds and equities may widen. Sumesh Chetty believes it's time to rethink what ‘cautious’ really means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
#44 Bonds – anything but boring
Once seen as safe and steady, bonds are now at the heart of market turbulence. From political pressure on the Fed to diverging central bank moves and volatile long-end yields, 2025 is rewriting the rules. Jason Borbora-Sheen makes the case for short-dated bonds, global diversification and a relentless focus on capital protection. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#43 The price is (finally) right?
Markets are a game of probabilities, and John Biccard thinks investors are mispricing them. In this episode, he unpacks why South African banks may offer compelling value, why the case for gold still glitters, and what 25 years of value investing has taught him about conviction, misperception, and timing. Is value finally getting its moment in the spotlight? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
#42 Stagflation looms as next test for markets
This year has not been short on worries for market participants. Now, another concern is creeping onto the list: stagflation. Early signals of a slowing US economy, coupled with rising prices, have caught investors’ attention, though they are not yet fully reflected in market pricing. John Stopford unpacks the complex likelihood of stagflation taking hold, its potential impact and how he is positi
#41 Infrastructure investment – aligning returns with impact
Infrastructure credit is emerging as a powerful way for institutional investors to combine resilient returns with real-world impact. Thanzi Ramukosi highlights a strong pipeline across energy, water, transport and digital connectivity, offering diversification, stability and support for South Africa’s development. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#40 Bond market round-up – from bright spots to red flags
Malcolm Charles unpacks the contrasting outlooks for global bond markets, starting with a ‘sunnier’ South Africa buoyed by improving fundamentals and resilient fixed income returns, before heading offshore where clouds of policy uncertainty and tariff tensions loom large. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#39 Decoding supply and demand dynamics in commodity surge
A global commodity index has hovered near multi-year highs for months, but beneath the surface, individual commodities tell very different stories. George Cheveley delves into the supply-and-demand dynamics behind key commodities, including platinum group metals, copper, oil, and gold. He discusses what’s powering the rally, and what may lie ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more i
#38 Cash Talk: Cut and curveball.
The South African Reserve Bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut, but surprised the market with its ambition to target a 3% inflation rate sooner than anticipated. Vivienne Taberer analyses the decision, decodes the Governor’s tone and shares her take on what’s next for SA interest rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#37 A narrow climb to an all-time high – can SA Inc. join the JSE rally?
The JSE All Share Index has surged past the 100 000 mark, doubling in just 5 years. Hannes van den Berg explores the significance of this milestone, while cautioning that the rally has been narrow, driven largely by the Resources sector and a handful of heavyweight stocks. He raises the key question: can SA Inc. step up to broaden the market rally? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more i
#36 A turning point for the dollar?
As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar plays a pivotal role in global markets. But has it reached a critical inflection point? Sahil Mahtani, Director at Ninety One’s Investment Institute, examines four key forces that may have already ended the dollar’s long-term bull run – potentially marking the start of a multi-year bear market cycle. The implications for asset allocators and investors
#35 Cash Talk: Mid-year monetary pulse
After a turbulent start to 2025 driven by tariff tensions, markets have found firmer footing. Sisamkele Kobus unpacks South Africa’s economic trajectory, the ups and downs of the Government of National Unity (GNU), and the South African Reserve Bank’s stance on inflation, before offering her reflections on inflation targeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#34 Oil, politics and uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions have once again exposed the oil market’s vulnerability to global events, fueling volatility and uncertainty for producers, consumers, and investors alike. Paul Gooden unpacks the forces driving recent market disruptions, including the fragile truce, the role of OPEC+ and US shale producers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#33 Fixed income – why the old rules no longer apply
Fixed income has long held ‘safe-haven’ status, but that reputation is cracking. In bond markets today, old assumptions are being upended. Peter Kent unpacks the blurring lines between developed and emerging market debt, the new global order where traditional labels no longer apply, and why bonds' defensive qualities are no longer a given. Meanwhile, headwinds for emerging markets are easing – and
#32 Cash Talk: Targeting 3% – an opportunity to catalyse economic growth
With CPI consistently below the target range, the SARB is proposing a lower, more ambitious 3% anchor. Vivienne Taberer examines what a 3% target would mean for the economy, markets, the rand, and monetary policy, concluding that the long-term gain would outweigh the short-term pain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#31 Budget 3.0, Trump and bonds – what lies ahead for fixed income investors
After a turbulent start to the year, 2025 is evolving into a year of opportunity. Malcolm Charles unpacks the key drivers of the bond market and dives into two significant events for South Africa: Budget 3.0 and President Ramaphosa’s recent meeting with Donald Trump. He explores what these developments could mean for the economy, markets, and sets out their positioning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.
#30 Third time’s the charm
Fresh from a meeting with National Treasury, Adam Furlan shares a cautiously optimistic view on Budget 3.0. With signs of fiscal discipline and borrowing restraint, he unpacks the key takeaways – and what they mean for bonds and the rand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#29 US approaches crunch point as debt soars
Moody’s, after some deliberation, joined its peers and knocked the US off its AAA perch. Markets seemingly shrugged it off, but it’s not that simple. John Stopford unpacks the implications, including why Trump’s "Big Beautiful Bill" could trigger a Truss-style trauma. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#28 A new investment reality takes shape
Ninety One’s 2025 Capital Market Assumptions was recently published based on data until the end of March, before the Trump tariff shock that so unnerved market participants. But as Daniel Morgan explains, many asset classes have already come full circle. Looking ahead, however, he anticipates a decade of modest returns where outperformance is unlikely to come from broad exposure alone, requiring i
#27 Cash Talk: Why the SARB is holding back
Inflation is under control in South Africa and the price of money surely set to fall. Despite an uncertain international backdrop, the SARB is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. Vivienne Taberer examines the case for cuts, why prices are behaving in South Africa and why the MPC is hawkish. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#26 Tariffs, OPEC and shale: Where oil and gas markets are headed in 2025
Paul Gooden breaks down the complex forces moving oil and gas prices in 2025 — from OPEC’s fragile balancing act to the fading punch of US shale. But the real story might be in natural gas, where AI demand, electrification, and LNG exports are shaping a compelling new growth curve. This is energy investing beyond the headlines — analytical, forward-looking, and grounded in a global perspective. Ho
#25 Keeping your footing when markets feel like shifting sand
Hannes van den Berg, unpacks how the team is navigating 2025’s waves of volatility. From sentiment swings and shifting earnings trends to gold’s safe-haven rally and the trade tensions shaping global equities — this conversation offers a timely look at what’s working (and what’s not) and why conviction matters more than ever. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
#24 Fact over fury: dissecting Trump’s first 100 days
A 100 days have flown by. Under the stewardship of Donald Trump, the US and the world have had to sit up and take notice, sometimes for all the wrong reasons. Philip Saunders and Lindsay Williams try to remain non-partisan when discussing this most divisive of US Presidents by analysing his impact on an assortment of asset classes. While Lindsay quietly gnashes his teeth, Philip methodically stand
