Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo is a podcast that offers insights into agricultural markets, trends, and economics. Hosted by Wandile Sihlobo, a prominent agricultural economist, the show analyzes market dynamics and policy impacts. It aims to inform farmers, agribusinesses, and policymakers about current developments in the agricultural sector. Episodes typically feature discussions on commodity prices, trade, and production challenges.
Episodes
A mild rise in tariffs in the US and its impact on SA agriculture
The U.S. government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour[1]. The South African government, private sector, and organised agriculture made submissions to
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow
The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.4% in June 2026, from 1.6% in May. This is the lowest level since December 2010. Wandile Sihlobo website
Will El Niño drought hit food prices in South Africa? Earlier rains and grain stocks offer hope
The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country.
By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typical
South Africa’s maize harvest process is roughly 14% behind last year’s pace
The farmers have so far delivered 6.4 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos. This season is running 14% behind last season's pace. The delays in the start of the season and the longer rainfall period are among the key reasons for this. South Africa is poised to harvest an ample 17.25 million tonnes of maize, the largest harvest on record. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo websi
Renewed strikes in the Middle East present risks to farming input costs
On July 6, 206, I flagged in a note to the South African agribusinesses that we are beginning to see the benefits of the likely memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. aimed at ending the war on agricultural input prices.
Fertiliser and fuel prices have declined notably from the levels we saw as recently as May 2026. That said, uncertainty remains, and it increasingly appears that
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation is at its lowest level in 17 months
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow. The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that the consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.6% in May 2026, down from 2.8% in March. This is the lowest level in 17 months.
There was a broad deceleration across the various food products. At the core of moderating consumer food price inflation are lower prices
South Africa’s farming fortunes are positive at the start of 2026
The South African farming sector had a broadly positive start to 2026. This is notwithstanding the challenges posed by foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in the pig industry, and floods in the northeastern regions of South Africa at the start of the year. Still, higher economic activity across field crops and horticulture sufficiently supported growth in the sector.
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Recent floods are another headwind for South Africa’s agricultural growth
We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers. Another
South Africa’s agriculture starts the year with strong jobs gains, but there are risks ahead
The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs. In the first quarter of 2026, farm jobs increased by 3% from the same period a year earlier to 960k jobs (up by 1% from the last quarter of 2025).
This uptick in agricultural employment is unsurprising as the sector has generally enjoyed favourable production conditions in 2025 through to the start of this year. The industries
South Africa sees strong agricultural machinery sales in April, but the path ahead is uncertain
Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges.
The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains.
Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an
Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months
Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across S
Canola production in South Africa may reach a fresh high in 2026-27
Many agricultural crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. They should serve as an inspiration for further growth of this sector.
I often write about South Africa's soybean success story, whose production increased from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected record harvest of 2,8 million tonnes in 2025-26. This, in turn, has been driven by increa
Will the current rains distort grain quality in South Africa?
We are late in the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed season. Farmers in some regions have already started harvesting the crop. South Africa is set to have its largest grain harvest on record, about 20.8 million tonnes. But will the recent rains not cause quality issues? Or will they help supplement soil moisture ahead of the start of the 2026-27 season? Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihl
Are cooling agricultural equipment sales in South Africa a temporary blip?
Last week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association released its monthly agricultural machinery sales report for March 2026.
To some observers of the South African agricultural sector, the report signalled a change from the long period of strong tractor and combine harvesters sales to a much slower pace. Tractor sales declined for the first time in 14 months, down 8% year-on-year, to
The Western Cape farmers face an immediate challenge from the Middle East war
In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape.
The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month.
Some farm
The African continent is at the heart of South Africa’s agricultural export success
When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly half of these exports went to the African continent.
Indeed, the continent’s promi
The Middle East remains a key potential export market for South Africa’s agriculture
South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis.
Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the co
Is it not too soon to be considering food price increases in South Africa?
South Africa indeed transports much of its agriculture and food products by road. For example, 80% of South African staple grain products are transported by road. We see similar volumes in other commodities.
Agricultural products are also processed in certain regions and then transported to various consumption points. This means that fuel price changes affect food prices through adjustments in d
South Africa will likely miss its maize export forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year
South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April. The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country will see strong enough momentum in the remaining weeks of the current marketing year to reach the 2.4 million tonnes seasonal for
Why are South African farmers feeling downbeat about business conditions in the country?
A day after we received robust agricultural GDP data, showing that the sector’s gross value added grew by 17.4% year-on-year in 2025, following a -8.4% year-on-year contraction in 2024, some may wonder why the sentiment indicators suggest a subdued mood.
In data released on March 11, we learned that after rising for much of last year, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 18 p
How the Middle East issues will likely impact South Africa's agriculture
We are watching the worrying developments in the Middle East. The region is key to South Africa's agriculture, both for exports and for its influence on oil and gas prices.
Listen to the podcast for our early impression. Wandile Sihlobo website
South Africa’s agricultural outlook for 2026 remains positive
We are in another favourable agricultural season in South Africa, with favourable rains that enabled the farmers to plant and supported the grazing veld for the livestock industry. This builds on a better agricultural performance in 2025, a year of La Niña rains that supported the sector. The only significant risk at the moment is foot-and-mouth disease, which continues to weigh on South Africa’s
SA farmers are upbeat about business conditions in the sector
After falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased by 5 points to 67 in Q4 2025.
Favourable weather conditions, strong exports throughout the year on the back of ample grains, oilseeds, and horticulture harvests, as well as better port efficiencies, are among the key drivers of optimism in the sector.
We suspect that the announcement of nati
SA agricultural conditions
We continue to receive encouraging notes about the prospects of La Niña in the 2025-26 summer season. The La Niña-induced rains will help support field crops, horticulture, and grazing veld for livestock. The farmers are optimistic and plan to increase area plantings, primarily of field crops.
One aspect of the agricultural sector that has posed a significant challenge is the livestock industry,
The G20 places a spotlight on the global hunger problem
About 720 million people continued to experience hunger in 2024, and 2.6 billion people were unable to afford healthy diets. It is this reality that compelled the G20 Leaders' Declaration in Johannesburg to shine a spotlight on global food insecurity challenges correctly. Countries can explore many interventions to resolve this challenge, from improving agricultural productivity to easing trade.
The rainy weather is an excellent start to the 2025-26 agricultural season in South Africa
Various regions of South Africa have started receiving the 2025-26 summer rains. The rains will help ensure that the agricultural season begins on time and that we have excellent production conditions. The farmers are relatively optimistic, having suggested that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds, a 1% increase from the 2024-25 season. Importantly, the favourab
The US recent tariff modification may be favourable for some SA agricultural industries
The U.S. decision to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products is a positive step towards easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers. The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers a
The unforgiving winters and summers of the beautiful Karoo region of South Africa
The Karoo region of South Africa experiences intense weather conditions, with often extremely hot summers and bitterly cold winters. It is these extreme weather conditions that nurture the distinct vegetation of the region, which is a source of feed for the sheep industry there. The Karoo lamb has a unique and supreme taste due to the distinct vegetation.
But there are times when extreme heat an
The African governments must help farmers
The African government must do everything possible to assist farmers during the 2025-26 production season.
In the past, when confronted with disasters and food shortages, we had relied on organisations such as the World Food Programme for assistance.
This time around, the World Food Programme is no longer fit to assist if we run into challenges.
Hence, thinking about the future, we have to d
Agricultural job prospects remain positive in South Africa
South Africa’s agriculture continues to create job opportunities, and its long-term job creation prospects remain positive.
If we look at the high-frequency data for a moment, the number of farm jobs in South Africa has increased slightly from the second quarter of 2025, by 2% to 920k in the third quarter. We see the quarterly improvements mainly in some field crops, horticulture, forestry, and
South Africa's 2025-26 winter crop production prospects remain positive
This is a busy period in South African farming. The summer crop farmers are tilling the land for the new season, table grape farmers are harvesting, and the winter crop farmers are harvesting.
South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat season began at the start of October. But we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop, which was planted from the start of May.
In the first fiv
Dispel false narratives about the South African farming sector
We must dispel the false narrative that South Africa’s farming sector is under siege. This sector has flourished since the dawn of democracy in 1994. We have seen its value more than double, and exports are expanding.
We are now the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters. If there were indeed an attack on the farming sector, we wouldn’t be seeing such success. Another d
Grain abundance in South Africa bodes well for moderating food price inflation
South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa's 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.
This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on ma
SA agriculture is in a busy period, with a promising outlook
We are in a period of relatively high activity in South Africa’s agriculture.
Farmers across the country are tilling the land to mark the start of the 2025-26 summer crop season. We also see some activity in the vegetable fields as farmers prepare for the season ahead. The outlook is positive as we are in a La Niña period.
There is also increased activity in the winter crop-growing regions of t
South Africa's maize exports to Zimbabwe continue, as the import ban seems to have been eased
In the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, Zimbabwe imported 34,093 tonnes of maize from South Africa. These imports are at a time when Zimbabwe has previously announced a ban on maize imports, an effort that was set to provide the local producers space to sell their produce to the domestic users.
What then is happening here? Listen to the podcast for more information.
Richard Humphries a
Another boost to SA's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest
We are ending South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season on an optimistic note. We now have eight production estimates with two more to follow, which are unlikely to change the positive picture we have. The data released at the end of September 2025 by the Crop Estimates Committee show an increase in South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate, up by 2
Kenya's maize production has recovered
Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya's maize crop has also shown signs of recovery. The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country's harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area pla
South Africa's food price inflation eases
We see a constructive picture of South Africa's food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months. South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products that were the major drivers of the moderation in price inflation.
A key product that many are watching is
South African farmers will start planting summer crops in October, and the outlook is encouraging
Next month, October, we will start our 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed production season in South Africa. The outlook for the season looks optimistic with prospects of rain, which will benefit not only crops but the overall agricultural sector.
Listen to the podcast for more information.
Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
South Africa’s agricultural sector will likely see a mixed recover in 2025, with livestock experiencing challenges
South Africa's agricultural sector is in its recovery phase, and the second quarter of 2025 figures signal the improvement, albeit mildly. The country's agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance
South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong
One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging pace.
If we consider the details, the tractor sales have increased for
Zimbabwe bans maize imports
The Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for the year or will need imports later.
Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize
South African agricultural exports were up 10% in the second quarter of 2025
After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago, according to data from Trade Map. This is again a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices. The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly c
South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025
We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some constraints. The effects of these divergences are also cle
The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize
South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one.
Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused on Africa. The region was hit by the drought and needed maize more than other regions for staple food. South Afri
SA's ample grain harvest may help ease food price inflation concern
South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year).
There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. This ample harvest will likely add downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for con
Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture
Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa.
Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable and with average rainfall. But the occurren
South Africans can take a few more tonnes of Brazilian coffee
Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others.
Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August 1 will likely cause Americans headaches. Brazil's coffee is inescapable due to its significance
South Africa lifts the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports
The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we could resume the imports. This decision was not unique to South Africa, but a standard global pra
It's time for BRICS countries to deepen agricultural trade
In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to the BRICS countries, as well as the potential that lies in this region.
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SA’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for food price inflation
There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry.
However, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. T
Zimbabwe will remain a net importer of maize in 2025-26
Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes that year.
Optimism in South Africa’s agriculture
South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels.
After a notable uptick in the first quarter of 2025, the ACI fell by 5 points in the seco
Will China open up for more agricultural products from South Africa?
We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development.
China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports valu
South Africa's agricultural exports up 10% in the first quarter of 2025
In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to.
Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$ 3.36 billion, up 10% from the same period a year ago
Southern Africa's grain production rebounds
The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings.
The harvest is underway in the country, and the message we a
South African farms are not under siege
One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality.
The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all
South Africa cushioned the southern Africa region from a maize supply crisis
At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes.
The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 milli
The excellent wine grapes harvest of 2025 signifies the recovery in SA agriculture generally
We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025.
SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest t
South Africa expects an ample grain harvest this year
On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season.
There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data.
At a time when we have been worrying about the excessive rains
The excessive rains present some challenges for South Africa's agriculture
We are beginning to be concerned about the impact of these excessive rains on agriculture, particularly summer grains and oilseed regions. The crop has matured in most areas, and some planted earlier are now ready to harvest. However, with these excessive rains, it may prove impossible to access the fields.
Since we had a late start to the season, roughly a month behind the typical schedule, some
Remain focused on domestic matters that are key to SA's agricultural growth
In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector.
In rec
Four ways South Africa can use to lift the global food security matters in the G20
South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the
presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda.
For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities:
* the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security
* empowering youth an
SA must work to diversify its agricultural export markets
South Africa was not spared of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 31% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear.
We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 21% (th
SA summer crop harvest set to recover robustly in 2024-25
South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects.
For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes,
There is rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture
We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture.
The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South Africa’s agriculture -- increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in
The conundrum of rising agricultural output and worsening food security in South Africa
South Africa has the contradiction of being the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, while swelling number of households that is food insecure. Without proper policy engagement of this challenge, the sector face the risk of more waves of misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished.
We believe that an accurate diagnosis of the problem and its
South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record level in 2024
South Africa's agriculture exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products.
The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peach
Encouraging crop production prospects for SA in the 2024-25 season
We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest.
The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of a better harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 overall summer grains
There are positive prospects for farm jobs in SA
South Africa's agriculture is on its recovery path, supported by favourable rainfall and progress in controlling the spread of animal diseases, amongst other contributing factors. The previous 2023-24 production season was challenging, characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal diseases that added immense pressure to the sector.
The jobs data for the fourth quarter of 2024 illustrate the
What to make of the recent major decline in South Africa's maize prices?
Since I have been writing about the higher maize prices and possible upside risks to consumer food price inflation, I thought it is important to highlight that we have been observing a price retreat since last week.
When the market closed today, February 14, 2025, South Africa's white maize spot price was R5 559 per tonne, well below the R6 700 per tonne mark we saw at the start of January 2025.
South Africa’s agriculture is thriving
There has been an emerging narrative that South Africa's agriculture has not
performed well recently.
Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all
contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform
farms also add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress.
The government's failings over the p
South African farmers likely planted a bigger area in the 2024-25 season
While the start of South Africa's 2024-25 crop season was tricky, there remains optimism that farmers likely planted more area than the previous season.
The preliminary plantings data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon shows that South African farmers likely planted 4,45 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season, up mildly by 0,3% from the previous
Can South Africa deepen agricultural exports to China?
A friend recently sent me a Bloomberg article about China's efforts to diversify agricultural imports. The idea is to lessen the reliance on the US in anticipation of trade friction under the Trump administration.
Central and South Americans seem to be on the way to becoming the major winners. They have a surplus of agricultural products that China imports, such as grains, oilseeds, red meat, wi
Helping a neighbor – SA continues to supply maize to Zimbabwe
Whenever I see challenges within South Africa's agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production.
Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season due to the mid-summer drought that affected Southern Afric
The troubling decline of the South African sorghum industry
Whenever one posts on social media about the challenges in the maize industry, I often see responses from people arguing that South Africans should consume more sorghum. They correctly highlight the nutritious value of the crop and its resilience in challenging climatic conditions.
But with all these benefits, the sorghum industry has not taken off. The challenge is not that farmers refuse to pl
South Africa's agriculture in 2024 and outlook for 2025
We can view 2024 in South Africa's agriculture as a "mixed" year. Indeed, the GDP figures will show a sharp contraction in South Africa's agricultural fortunes in 2024. But a deep dive will illuminate a more nuanced picture of mixed performance. For example, the field crops and livestock subsectors had their fair share of challenges, while the horticulture subsector had a relatively better year.
SA sees robust agricultural exports
I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports this year.
Already, South Africa's cumulative agricultural export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4
There is rising optimism in South Africa’s farming sector
We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest since Q2 2022.
This level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses rema
South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports from the US
South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this year.
Such imports will also depend on whether many American farmers planted white corn. Re
